PM Sher Bahadur Deuba and Prachanda settle on forming government together in Nepal

Political instability has been a recurrent feature of Nepal’s Parliament since the end of the decade-long Maoist rebellion, and as a record, no Prime Minister has served a full term after the civil war ended in 2006. The frequent infighting among various parties has been detrimental to the country’s negative growth. The result that is emerging from the recent elections appears to be positive in the interest of the nation and the formation of a stable government is in the offing.

The recent elections in the Himalayan kingdom of Nepal are probably going to provide a majority to the ruling five-party alliance headed by Nepal’s Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba. Prime Minister Deuba and CPN-Maoist Centre chairman Pushpakamal Dahal Prachanda have agreed to continue with their 5-party alliance for forming the next government.

During a post-poll meeting, the two leaders discussed the current political scenario and explored various possibilities for the formation of the new government. The stability of the new government was the focal point of their discussion.

The 5-part alliance will have a comfortable majority

“The two leaders have reached an understanding to continue the present ruling alliance,” exuding confidence that the five-party alliance will have enough strength in the Parliament to form a majority government.

“Janata Samajwadi Party led by Upendra Yadav has also expressed their desire to join the coalition and with the support of both the Madhesi parties, getting a comfortable majority in the house seems imminent for the ruling alliance led by the Nepali Congress. 

The five-party ruling alliance has secured 82 seats so far while the CPN-UML alliance led by former prime minister K P Oli bagged 52 seats under the direct election.

In the 275-member House of Representatives, 165 will be elected through direct voting, while the remaining 110 will be elected through a proportional electoral system. A party or a coalition needs 138 seats for a clear majority.

The Nepali Congress-led alliance is likely to have comfortable sailing for forming a majority government, after the results of the House of Representatives, under both direct and proportional voting systems are declared.

As the results of Nepal’s Parliamentary elections under direct voting are more or less visible now, two major political alliances contesting the polls - the ruling Nepali Congress-led democratic and leftist alliance and the CPN-UML-led leftist and pro-Hindu, pro-monarchy alliance have intensified their efforts for the formation of the new government and to end the political instability that has beleaguered the Himalayan nation for more than a decade.

Meanwhile, Indian Ambassador to Nepal Naveen Srivastava held separate meetings with Prime Minister Deuba and CPN leader Prachanda as a goodwill gesture to the emerging political establishments.

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Deuba government will face challenges of balancing ties with India and China

The next government will face challenges of keeping a stable political administration and reviving the tourism industry while balancing ties with neighbours - China and India, which will be the most arduous task.

Deuba has a reputation of mending ways with India

Bilateral ties, which had hit a nadir during former Nepal PM K P Oli's rule, have bounced back after Sher Bahadur Deuba came to power. Modi's visit has cemented ties by focusing on energy infrastructure and cultural links. Nepal’s primacy in India’s Neighbourhood First policy is evident from the two recent back-to-back Prime Ministerial visits. Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba was in India from April 1-3 this year, which was followed by PM Modi paying a return visit to Nepal on May 16.

Pushpa Kamal Dahal “Prachanda is the most dubious leader often flip-lopped with India

Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal “Prachanda, has often flip-flopped on relations with India. Prachanda has had a long association with India, having spent many years in the country during Nepal’s civil war from 1996 to 2006. At that time, India was a safe haven for Prachanda and many Maoist leaders, and they never tried to antagonise Indian authorities that were fighting a domestic Maoist insurgency. But then, after the Maoist insurgency came to an end in Nepal, Prachanda changed colours quite often, and played hide and seek with India, while aligning with China. He has made many secret visits to China.

Prachanda’s character is highly dubious and carries a long list of betrayals with India. He and Oli are from the same school of thought. After Oli became the premier last October, there was gradual erosion in Prachanda’s political stature. The parties of both Prachanda and Oli share the same leftist vote bank and this impediment made Prachanda a bête-noire of Oli. Many in Kathmandu believed Prachanda once again reached out to India to topple Oli’s government. Prachanda also sent his trusted lieutenant Krishna Bahadur Mahara to India to talk to Indian officials.  The reason for the recent tilt of Prachanda towards India could be to fulfil his political ambitions.

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