Calibrating India and its foreign relations in the present context

The International Monetary Fund in its September 2022 report has declared India as the fifth largest economy in the world by overtaking the United Kingdom. India’s economic and political rise has both domestic and global implications and might alter the nature of the country’s foreign relations with powerful countries like the United States, China, and Russia, and vice versa. Furthermore, global events, such as the protectionist tech policies imposed by former President Trump on Chinese trade practices, the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the deepening of authoritarianism in China, are forcing global realignment. Consequently, India is much better positioned to reassess and realign its foreign relations with existing major powers and signalling interests and preferences vis-à-vis emerging as a new global power.

India’s relations with the United States, China, and Russia

Let us analyse the events related to India, China, the United States, and Russia, in all such bilateral relations the prominent actor in India. For example, when we analyse US-India, US-Russia and US-China bilateral relations, we can easily concur that India is the most important bilateral partner for the United States. The same is the case with Russia. And subsequent to the Russia-Ukraine war the bilateral relations have further prospered with a quantum jump in trade benefits for India – oil at a significant discount. Besides, India’s tilt towards Russia has not strained its relations with the United States and the West. Although many global leaders have openly sought India’s intervention to stop the Russia-Ukraine war and have even claimed that India is the only country that can put some pressure on Russia for a peaceful end to the conflict. India in return has not come out openly demonizing Russia. Instead of playing second fiddle, still, not a single country has ever castigated India’s passive role – on the contrary, trade relations with some European countries like France have witnessed significant growth.

Indo-China bilateral relations have remained steady but at a historic low

The course of events related to India and China had a sharp downward trend during the Doklam crisis in 2017 when there was a military border standoff between the Indian Armed Forces and the People’s Liberation Army of China. This was in response to the Chinese constructing a road at the tri-junction area of India-Bhutan-China. The border standoff lasted for more than two months and ended only when the Chinese halted the road construction and troops from both sides withdrew from Doklam. There was a short recovery in late 2018; however, from early 2019 onwards Indo-China bilateral relations worsened with the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020. Thereafter, India-China relations have continued to remain steady but at a historic low. Notably, China’s international relationships with the majority of the countries have nose-dived after the outbreak of the pandemic.

Where China is a looser India is a gainer

While analyzing events or bilateral relations of major economies with India and China, it is observed that wherever China is losing its foothold, India is the automatic gainer, especially in terms of trade and manufacturing – The chip industry is gaining strength in India at the concurrent loss of China. More and more countries have expressed their intent to shift their manufacturing base from China to India.

India is an important member of QUAD and BRICS both opposing each other

Interestingly, India is an important member country in QUAD and BRICS both, and more importantly, both organisations are opposed to each other in terms of conflicting areas of interest.

Special relations with Britain and the European Union

India has developed a special relationship with Britain and the European Union. The same is the case with all the Central Asian countries, where India has established direct trade relations and direct flights for the first time.

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ASEAN countries are more aligned towards India

Most of the ASEAN countries are aligned more towards India as compared to China because of China’s bullying tactics in the South and the East China Sea. The Sen-Kaku Island which is an integral part of Japan – China has illegitimately staked a claim on this uninhabited island. And so the bilateral relations between Japan and China are at the lowest ebb. Whereas India enjoys a special relationship with Japan – Bullet Train in India has been financed and commissioned by Japan.

At the moment Israel perhaps has developed its relationship with India to an extent that can be quantified as the best bilateral relation in all terms.

Today, India sits in a very ideal situation in a multi-polar world – while building its best relations with all the squabbling poles.

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